STOWASUS*EU: Effect of 2xCO2 on storm surges in the Southern North Sea
National Institute for Coastal and Marine Management (RIKZ), the Netherlands
Hydraulic modelling, statistical analysis, water level predictions
Stowasus 1/50 yr wind velocity [m/s], directional sector: (0° - 360°)
Based on numerical modelling the influence of a doubled amount of CO2 in the atmosphere on the wind velocities, storm surges and water levels on the North Sea has been studied.
Statistical analysis of 29 simulated winter seasons resulted in 2*10-1, 2*10-2, and 1*10-4 quantiles of wind velocities, water levels and surges (average occurrence of once in 5, 50, 10000 year) for both the situation with the present amount of CO2 and for the situation with a doubled amount of CO2.
For the water level simulations use was made of the ZUNO model, a WAQUA model by Rijkswaterstaat, covering the southern North Sea. Water level boundary conditions came from a larger continental shelf model (NEAC), whereas the wind input originated from the ECHAM4 climate model.